主题:12月04号实时新闻

作者:1

[第1段]

开始时间: 13:45:04

结束时间: 13:46:20

对话:

Aldrich: "Interesting. Last week Citi just published a bullish Bitcoin report, and this week Grayscale released one too"

Stan: "Are they trying to use their influence to boost confidence in the crypto market?"

[第2段]

开始时间: 13:50:04

结束时间: 13:58:20

对话:

Kennedy: "Grayscale is absolutely a true believer in crypto. They have never wavered in their conviction" {Godly: 👍}

Dariel: "Yet the market is still weak as always. Really discouraging"

Servant: "Do not even mention it, man. My good mood from this morning just disappeared. Crying"

Godly: "Has everyone finished reading the document Sara shared? Grayscale wrote it pretty well. I agree with their perspective"

Stan: "I have not yet. I am going to read it now"

Hale: "When the U.S. stock market opened on Monday, every crypto related stock crashed together"

Rod: "Traditional financial investors clearly panicked. They rushed to dump anything related to crypto"

Dariel: "The biggest losses were concentrated in crypto treasury companies and mining firms"

Servant: "Strategy led the decline and dragged down the reputation of the entire industry. The crash started with them"

Kennedy: "Strategy lowered its 2025 profit forecast over the weekend. That was the spark"

[第3段]

开始时间: 14:05:04

结束时间: 14:13:20

对话:

Neal: "What exactly happened on Monday? Crypto tanked more than ten percent before the U.S. market even opened"

Hale: "Was it because of that rumor about Powell planning to resign?"

Dominic: "Already debunked. Totally fake"

Aldrich: @13@ "It was probably the Bank of Japan signaling rate hikes again"

Godly: "Exactly. The Bank of Japan’s rate hike news caught many by surprise and caused risk assets across the board to fall overnight"

Neal: "Makes sense. No way a random rumor could make Bitcoin drop that much"

Dariel: "I do not get it. Why would Japan raising rates make Bitcoin crash?"

Kennedy: "Japan plays a major role in global finance"

Dariel: "A major role in what way exactly?"

[第4段]

开始时间: 14:15:20

结束时间: 14:21:20

对话:

Kennedy: "More precisely, liquidity support. Japan, due to long term negative interest rates and extremely loose monetary policy, has essentially acted as the global financial system’s cheap funding ATM" {Dariel: 👍}

Rod: "Right. Global market liquidity does not come only from the United States. A large portion actually comes from Japan"

Graham: @15@ "Even though Powell resigning was fake news, Trump will very likely announce his nominee before Christmas"

Godly: @23@ "I heard a lot of crypto speculators borrow money in Japan to trade. Is that true?"

Rod: "It is true. In Japan you can borrow yen at nearly zero percent cost, convert it to dollars, and put it into Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and other high return assets"

Dariel: "Free leverage financing. Haha, that is wild"

Rod: "Also, Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds"

Rod: "If Japanese banks raise rates, they will sell Treasuries, which will cause Treasury prices to drop"

[第5段]

开始时间: 14:21:55

结束时间: 14:23:20

对话:

Dominic: @24@ "Does Wall Street have predictions on who will get appointed?"

Dariel: "Japan is more important than I ever knew. Thanks for explaining"

Rod: "The yen’s trend is a core indicator. Definitely something to watch closely"

Graham: "White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett is the undisputed top candidate"

[第6段]

开始时间: 14:25:20

结束时间: 14:46:20

对话:

Dominic: "Nice. He is someone we would be happy to see as the new Fed Chair"

Stan: "If I remember correctly, Hassett is one of the key architects behind Trump’s crypto strategy, right?"

Graham: "Yes. Since January he has served as the head of the White House Digital Asset Working Group, responsible for all crypto related matters" {Servant: 👍}

Stan: "Having someone that familiar with crypto lead the Federal Reserve would be amazing"

Hale: "And Hassett is a firm supporter of rate cuts. He has called many times for immediate cuts"

Godly: "Hassett has long been a hawkish economic adviser. A December rate cut is pretty much guaranteed"

Hale: "Wall Street and the financial markets have already begun pricing in more rate cuts"

Graham: "Traders are already betting that if Hassett becomes Fed Chair, the Fed will cut another seventy five basis points by June 2026. That is twenty five more than earlier expectations"

Servant: "So why has the crypto market still not seen a strong rebound?"

Stan: "I am confused about that too"

Aldrich: "The truth is, crypto has recently lagged behind all traditional markets. It is the weakest performer"

Godly: "Mainstream media keeps blaming liquidity issues for the selling, but that explanation is weak"

Servant: "If it were a real liquidity crisis, U.S. stocks should be dropping too. But they are not"

Kennedy: "In a prolonged bear market, any negative event becomes the so called reason for the drop"

Aldrich: "One thing to note. If Hassett wins, short term rates will fall quickly and the yield curve will steepen, and that might not be the best move" {Neal: 👍}

Rod: "The concern is valid. The risk of inflation staying above the Fed’s two percent target still exists"

Dariel: "It is really unfortunate to see things go this way"

Hale: "Like Grayscale, I remain optimistic. I firmly believe this is just the painful phase before the next big rally"

Godly: "Is there some hidden negative factor building up that we do not know about?"

[第7段]

开始时间: 14:49:20

结束时间: 15:14:20

对话:

Servant: "The only thing I can think of is a major treasury company blowing up, which would trigger forced liquidation of a massive amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum"

Stan: "That is what the market has been worried about the most, especially regarding Strategy and BitMine"

Godly: "No need to worry about Strategy anymore. Latest financial data shows Strategy still has one point four four billion dollars in cash reserves"

Aldrich: "How did they get so much money? Are they magicians? It is unbelievable"

Neal: "Maybe they used some new financing method again"

Dariel: @54@ "Besides SharpLink, I do not see big treasury companies at risk of blowing up right now"

Graham: "Grayscale, Strategy, and other major crypto leaders all remained bullish during this downturn. That keeps me motivated"

Godly: "What is more surprising is that none of them sold even a single Bitcoin"

Kennedy: @58@ "BitMine, however, does face insolvency risk. It is not looking good"

Dariel: "BitMine already has no cash reserves left?"

Kennedy: "Pretty much. They put almost all their cash into buying Ethereum and lost the ability to buy more at low levels"

Hale: "BitMine is caught in a toxic financing trap earlier than Strategy"

Dariel: "Honestly, looking back, their entire position building was a disaster. They bought everything at Ethereum’s peak"

Stan: "The speed at which the tide receded shocked everyone. Even major institutions were not spared"

Servant: "Ethereum’s weakness definitely includes market fears of BitMine’s forced liquidation"

Neal: "Has anyone calculated at what price Ethereum would trigger BitMine’s liquidation?"

Kennedy: "Technically speaking, they should already be liquidating. They are just choosing to sell stock to survive"

[第8段]

开始时间: 15:14:50

结束时间: 15:41:20

对话:

Kennedy: "Back in October, the company was forced to issue five point twenty two million shares at seventy dollars each"

Neal: "That is not liquidation. That is still equity based financing"

Hale: "These treasury companies bought spot assets. Spot does not get liquidated. They only sell if they cannot pay financing costs"

Rod: "And they can definitely pay those costs. Their staking rewards alone cover it"

Neal: "So liquidation depends entirely on their strategic decisions?"

Godly: "More or less. It depends on whether their internal conviction collapses"

Kennedy: "But companies like BitMine borrowed far more than their cash flow. The unrealized losses are very real"

Servant: "As long as Bitcoin and Ethereum go up smoothly, none of this matters"

Neal: "Hahaha, that is very true"

Aldrich: "Now all focus is on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting"

Stan: "One more tough week to get through. Let us hope Bitcoin does not make new lows before then"

Aldrich: "Whether the crypto market finds a turning point depends on this battle"

Graham: "Here is an interesting number. Whale accumulators have added eight point zero one million ETH since April 2025, about ten percent of total liquid supply"

Rod: "Most of that came from institutions. BitMine alone bought three percent"

Graham: "Either way, large investors are accumulating Ethereum spot"

Servant: "Then who is doing all the selling?"

Graham: "OG sellers. Long term holders. They sold an average of forty five thousand ETH per day this month"

Dariel: "Maybe they started selling the moment staking queue delays showed up"

Servant: "Why would that happen? Long term investors should have stronger conviction in Ethereum"

Graham: "Mostly profit taking. They accumulated ETH mostly below eighteen hundred dollars"

Neal: "It is fine. They will eventually run out of ETH to sell. The selling pressure will naturally end"

Godly: "It all depends on which side is stronger and can outlast the other in this tug of war"

Sara: "According to the mentor’s latest analysis, the extreme downside target is in the sixty eight thousand to seventy thousand range. If we get an opportunity there, we will go all in" {Kennedy: 👍, Stan: 👍, Neal: 👏}

Dariel: "Got it. I have been waiting for that opportunity for a long time"

Servant: "Sixty eight thousand means another twenty percent drop"

Sara: "That is the extreme level. We may not reach it. There is also strong support near the previous low"

Hale: "I think eighty thousand is the true bottom. With institutions locking up supply, breaking below that level is very difficult"

Sara: "Let us wait for the mentor to give the exact entry signal"

Stan: "Okay, thank you Sara"

Kennedy: "That matches my own lowest target. Let us go for it"