主题:12月05号小组实时新闻

作者:1

[第1段]

开始时间: 11:45:04

结束时间: 11:46:35

对话:

Joyce: "This year's mainnet upgrade did not drop like in previous years. Totally unexpected"

Everley: "Haha, looks like we finally broke the curse of upgrades leading to dumps"

[第2段]

开始时间: 11:50:04

结束时间: 12:05:20

对话:

Hal: "Will Ethereum have follow up upgrades after this one?"

Kirby: "Yes. This expansion is not done in a single step. It follows a rigorous three phase upgrade strategy"

Lea: "That is good for the market. It can stimulate multiple waves of excitement"

Joyce: @4@"After the final upgrade is complete, we will fully surpass Sol in scalability and cost, right?"

Kirby: "Absolutely. The introduction of BPO technology is a milestone. It completely overturns traditional crypto scaling methods" {Toby: 👍}

Bryce: "Sol only has advantages in a few areas. Many people overestimate it"

Kirby: "And this upgrade also improves the efficiency issues that everyone complained about before"

Everley: "Amazing. This really strengthens institutional and long term investor confidence in the future of Ethereum's ecosystem"

Joyce: "I hope Ethereum can use this opportunity to return to its proper price track"

Toby: "The new Federal Reserve Chair will be announced this week. If Hassett takes the position smoothly, it will definitely push the market higher" {Hal: 👍, Lea: 👏}

[第3段]

开始时间: 12:08:04

结束时间: 12:17:20

对话:

Aimee: "This week is Trump's nomination wave. Both the CFTC and FDIC Chair nominees are finalized"

Dane: "CFTC is Selig. Who is the FDIC Chair nominee?"

Aimee: "Travis Hill. One of Trump's most trusted right hand people"

Jed: "Important positions are all being given to his own staff"

Aimee: "Exactly. Financial power is becoming highly centralized in the White House"

Hal: "Trump is not even pretending anymore. He is openly placing his own people in top positions"

Bryce: @16@"Because of this, Wall Street is trying to block Trump from appointing Hassett as Fed Chair"

Lea: "Seriously?"

Bryce: "Absolutely. It is already happening, and even some leaders of American corporations jointly signed letters"

Everley: "Between the main candidates, whichever one they pick will favor rate cuts. What is the difference?"

Toby: "If they choose Christopher Waller, it might become a compromise option"

[第4段]

开始时间: 12:18:20

结束时间: 12:26:10

对话:

Bryce: "Wall Street fears that Hassett will use split voting to lower short term interest rates to fight inflation, which they view as political interference"

Everley: "Classic excuse. They always panic about weakening the Fed's independence"

Luther: "Wall Street must be holding tons of stock market short positions and is trying everything possible to stop rate cuts"

Joyce: "Trump wants full control over the Federal Reserve Board"

Aimee: "He is almost there. Removing Governor Lisa Cook earlier was to free up the critical fourth seat"

Dane: "Haha. Trump is about to appoint four of his own people to the Board"

Everley: "Next year will be the ultimate rate cutting year"

Luther: "Even if he controls all seven Board members, he still cannot fully dominate the FOMC. There are still the regional Fed Presidents"

Kirby: "But by law, regional Fed Presidents must be approved by the Federal Reserve Board"

[第5段]

开始时间: 12:26:55

结束时间: 12:29:40

对话:

Jed: "Wow. That completes the entire logical loop"

Everley: "Trump has never hidden his policy preference. He wants a Federal Reserve that will aggressively cut rates for him"

Bryce: "A fully controlled Fed becomes the strongest tool for the president to carry out his economic agenda" {Everley: 👍}

[第6段]

开始时间: 12:31:20

结束时间: 12:46:20

对话:

Joyce: "Is MicroStrategy getting removed from the MSCI index?"

Lea: "You just saw that? Rumors came out a month ago"

Joyce: "Will this have an impact?"

Toby: "Since MSCI index funds have large passive holdings, being removed could trigger about twenty eight billion dollars in outflows"

Everley: "The most pessimistic estimate is that if other index providers follow, total forced selling could reach as high as eighty eight billion dollars"

Hal: "My God. That would instantly crash the stock back to one hundred dollars"

Kirby: "On the day the news becomes official, it will definitely be a huge crash. No suspense at all"

Luther: @38@"This is a one time volatility event. It does not affect the company's fundamentals or long term narrative"

Aimee: @42@"I think the market is overreacting. The bad news has already been priced in"

Kirby: "No. The passive holdings of those funds have not been unwound yet, and once removed, they must clear everything"

Joyce: "What I find interesting is that the entire crypto community is resisting Wall Street and even calling for shorting JPMorgan"

Jed: "Could this spark a public conflict between the crypto industry and Wall Street?"

Toby: "Not really. People are just venting"

Bryce: "Almost every crypto investor has lost heavily over the last two months. No one has the capital to go fight in the stock market"

Lea: "Everyone around me who invests in crypto is deeply stuck in various tokens"

[第7段]

开始时间: 12:49:20

结束时间: 13:14:20

对话:

Kirby: "Not getting liquidated in this downturn was already a blessing"

Dane: "All leveraged positions were wiped out. Only spot holders barely survived"

Jed: "Thinking about this makes me grateful for the community and the mentor. They helped us avoid disaster" {Luther: 👍, Dane: 👍}

Hal: "Yes. We survived nearly two months of extreme conditions entirely because of the mentor" {Jed: 👍}

Everley: "Is Strategy being hunted by short sellers recently? Many Wall Street institutions are eyeing it closely"

Jed: "God bless us"

Toby: "Clearly yes. The stock's movement shows it"

Everley: "Short interest increased nearly nine percent. It is becoming one of the most heavily shorted large cap stocks"

Dane: "Short pressure comes from investors who hold a bearish view on Bitcoin"

Lea: "Maybe people in traditional finance who want to short Bitcoin but do not dare to enter the crypto market choose to short Strategy instead"

Kirby: "That is exactly what most Wall Street institutions are doing"

Bryce: "The common external view is that such high leverage strategies may not be sustainable in a reversing market"

Toby: "They raised more than twenty billion dollars this year. Investors naturally fear this type of gambling behavior"

Jed: "Has anyone calculated Strategy's actual leverage ratio?"

Luther: "The real leverage is not as high as people think. The leverage used to buy Bitcoin is only about two point one"

Jed: "That is much better than expected. Not nearly as scary as analysts claim"

Luther: "They exaggerate it on purpose to create a short selling environment"

Kirby: "The main issue is that most of the financing happened when the stock price and NAV were at peak levels, leaving high entry investors with large unrealized losses"

Joyce: "There is nothing we can do about that"

Luther: "Strategy executives remain fully confident in the future market and the company's outlook. There is no need for us to worry"

Bryce: @59@"Strategy stock is currently the easiest way to hedge Bitcoin, so naturally there are many short positions"

Bryce: "This is a special form of market hedging, not a coordinated short attack"

Everley: "That makes sense. I always forgot about the hedging factor"

Dane: "Strategy has repeatedly promised never to sell a single Bitcoin. I choose to believe them"

Joyce: "Strategy has proven its credibility through action and earned the respect of everyone in the crypto space" {Aimee: 👍}

Toby: "Speaking of this, we need to closely watch BlackRock's recent moves. They just sent one hundred thirty five million dollars worth of ETH to an exchange"

Joyce: "Are they planning to sell all that ETH?"

Toby: "Every time they moved coins to an exchange before, it was for selling"

Kirby: "Same pattern many times. In November alone, BlackRock sold nearly seven hundred sixty million dollars worth of tokens on exchanges"

[第8段]

开始时间: 13:14:50

结束时间: 13:40:20

对话:

Lea: "Damn it. BlackRock is basically the ultimate bear"

Toby: "The last two transfers happened when the crypto market was short on liquidity, which worsened the drop"

Hal: "Come on. The market just started improving. Are they going to ruin it again?"

Bryce: "One hundred thirty five million is nothing. It can cause short term waves but cannot reverse the overall trend"

Jed: "BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently admitted publicly that his past stance against Bitcoin was wrong and said the company is actively embracing it"

Jed: "Then why are they still selling Bitcoin?"

Aimee: "These large sales are likely routine ETF settlement operations"

Hal: @86@"So they are not actively selling their own holdings?"

Aimee: "Correct. These on chain transfers are part of the standard operational process of spot ETF redemptions"

Hal: "Oh, so it just means the ETF experienced net outflows"

Aimee: "Yes. Market makers submit redemption requests to BlackRock and exchange ETF shares for actual Bitcoin or Ethereum"

Jed: "So we misunderstood BlackRock. We thought they were intentionally reducing holdings"

Aimee: "The key point is that real market selling does not happen at the moment the on chain transfer becomes visible"

Joyce: "What do you mean?"

Aimee: "Redemptions usually have a one day delay"

Aimee: "This means when retail investors see a large on chain transfer, the related selling pressure may have already been absorbed by the market the previous day" {Lea: 👍}

Lea: "BlackRock's transfer happened on the third, but the market did not drop. That explains it"

Aimee: "Exactly. The market already absorbed the selling pressure"

Lea: "Now I finally understand the redemption mechanism of ETFs. Eye opening"

Everley: "Looks like we do not need to worry about Ethereum crashing"

Aimee: "These kinds of transfers are actually a very lagging indicator"