主题:12月05号高级小组实时新闻

作者:1

[第1段]

开始时间: 11:45:04

结束时间: 11:46:35

对话:

John: "This year's mainnet upgrade did not cause a price drop like previous years. Totally unexpected"

Chriss: "Haha, guess we finally broke the curse of upgrades leading to dumps"

Michael: "Will Ethereum have follow up upgrades after this?"

[第2段]

开始时间: 11:50:04

结束时间: 12:05:20

对话:

Kip: "Yes. This expansion is not a one step rollout. It uses a carefully designed three phase upgrade strategy"

Tricia: "That is great for the market. It can stimulate multiple waves of excitement"

John: @4@"After the final upgrade, we will surpass Sol across the board in scalability and cost, right?"

Kip: "Absolutely. The introduction of BPO technology is a milestone. It completely transforms traditional crypto scaling methods" {Sean: 👍}

Bruce: "Sol only has advantages in a few areas. Many people overestimate it"

Kip: "And Ethereum also improved the efficiency issues that everyone complained about before"

Chriss: "Amazing. This boosts institutional and long term investor confidence in Ethereum's future"

John: "Hope Ethereum can take this chance to get back on its proper price track"

Sean: "The announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair will be made this week. If Hassett is selected, it will definitely push the market higher" {Michael: 👍, Tricia: 👏}

[第3段]

开始时间: 12:08:04

结束时间: 12:17:20

对话:

Axel: "This week is Trump's nomination wave. Both the CFTC and FDIC Chair nominations have been finalized"

Daniel: "CFTC is Selig. Who is the FDIC Chair nominee?"

Axel: "Travis Hill. One of Trump's trusted people"

Mark: "All key positions are being filled by his own staff"

Axel: "Exactly. Financial power is becoming highly concentrated within the White House"

Michael: "Trump is not even pretending anymore. He is simply putting his own people in directly"

Bruce: @16@"Because of this, Wall Street is trying to block Trump from appointing Hassett as the next Fed Chair"

Tricia: "Seriously?"

Bruce: "Of course. It is already happening. Some corporate leaders even joined together to oppose it"

Chriss: "No matter which candidate they pick, they all want rate cuts. Is there even a meaningful difference?"

Sean: "If they choose Christopher Waller, it may become a compromise option"

[第4段]

开始时间: 12:18:20

结束时间: 12:26:10

对话:

Bruce: "Wall Street fears Hassett will push for lower short term interest rates through split votes to counter inflation pressure, which they consider political interference"

Chriss: "Predictable excuse. They always use the lack of Fed independence as fear mongering"

Jeff: "Wall Street is definitely holding lots of short positions on the stock market and is trying everything possible to block rate cuts"

John: "Trump wants full control over the Federal Reserve Board"

Axel: "He is close. Removing Governor Lisa Cook earlier was to free up the critical fourth seat"

Daniel: "Hahaha. Trump will soon be able to appoint four of his own people to the Board"

Chriss: "Next year will be the ultimate rate cutting year"

Jeff: "Even if he controls all seven Board members, he still cannot fully dominate the FOMC. There are still regional Fed Presidents"

Kip: "But by law, regional Fed Presidents must be approved by the Federal Reserve Board"

[第5段]

开始时间: 12:26:55

结束时间: 12:29:40

对话:

Mark: "Wow. That forms a complete logical loop"

Chriss: "Trump has never hidden his desire for a Fed that will cut rates aggressively for him"

Bruce: "A fully controlled Fed will become the strongest tool for the president to carry out his economic agenda" {Chriss: 👍}

[第6段]

开始时间: 12:31:20

结束时间: 12:46:20

对话:

John: "I heard MicroStrategy is being removed from the MSCI index?"

Tricia: "You are late. Rumors surfaced a month ago already"

John: "Will this have an impact?"

Sean: "MSCI index funds hold large passive positions. Once removed, it could trigger about twenty eight billion dollars of outflows"

Chriss: "The most pessimistic estimates say that if other index providers follow, total forced selling could reach as high as eighty eight billion dollars"

Michael: "My God. That would send the stock back down to one hundred dollars instantly"

Kip: "The day the news becomes official will definitely be a massive crash. No suspense there"

Jeff: @38@"This is a one time volatility event. It does not affect the company's fundamentals or long term outlook"

Axel: @42@"I think the market is overreacting. The bad news has already been priced in"

Kip: "No. Those index tracking funds have not unwound their positions yet. If removed, they must sell everything"

John: "What I find interesting is that the crypto community is collectively calling for resistance against Wall Street and even urging people to short JPMorgan"

Mark: "Could this spark an open conflict between the crypto industry and Wall Street?"

Sean: "No. People are just venting"

Bruce: "Most crypto investors have lost badly over the past two months. They do not have spare capital to go fight in the stock market"

Tricia: "Everyone I know in crypto is deeply stuck in various tokens"

[第7段]

开始时间: 12:49:20

结束时间: 13:14:20

对话:

Kip: "In this downturn, not getting liquidated was already a blessing"

Daniel: "All leveraged positions got wiped out. Only spot holders survived"

Mark: "Thinking about that makes me thankful for the community and the mentor. They helped us dodge a disaster" {Jeff: 👍, Daniel: 👍}

Michael: "Yes. We survived nearly two months of extreme conditions entirely because of the mentor" {Mark: 👍}

Chriss: "Is Strategy being hunted by short sellers? Lots of Wall Street institutions are circling around it"

Mark: "God bless us"

Sean: "Clearly yes. The stock's movement says it all"

Chriss: "Short interest increased nearly nine percent. It is becoming one of the most heavily shorted large cap stocks"

Daniel: "The short pressure comes from investors who hold a bearish view on Bitcoin"

Tricia: "Maybe traditional finance investors who want to short Bitcoin but do not dare to actually enter the crypto market, so they choose to short Strategy instead"

Kip: "That is exactly what most Wall Street institutions are doing"

Bruce: "The common view outside is that these highly leveraged strategies may be unsustainable in a reversal environment"

Sean: "They raised more than twenty billion dollars this year. Investors naturally fear this kind of gambling behavior"

Mark: "Has anyone calculated Strategy's actual leverage ratio?"

Jeff: "The real leverage is not as high as people imagine. The leverage used to buy Bitcoin is only around two point one"

Mark: "That is not bad at all. Way less scary than what institutions claim"

Jeff: "They exaggerate on purpose to create a short selling atmosphere"

Kip: "The real issue is that most of the financing happened when the stock price and NAV were at peak levels, so high entry investors now face large unrealized losses"

John: "There is nothing we can do about that part"

Jeff: "Strategy executives are confident about the future market and company outlook. We really have nothing to worry about"

Bruce: @58@"Strategy stock is currently the easiest way to hedge Bitcoin, so naturally there are lots of short positions"

Bruce: "It is a special form of market hedging, not a coordinated short attack"

Chriss: "Makes sense. I always forgot about the hedging factor"

Daniel: "Strategy has repeatedly promised never to sell a single Bitcoin. I choose to believe them"

John: "Strategy has proven their integrity through their actions and earned the respect of everyone in crypto" {Axel: 👍}

Sean: "Speaking of that, we need to keep an eye on BlackRock's recent moves. They just sent one hundred thirty five million dollars worth of ETH to an exchange"

John: "Are they going to sell all that ETH?"

Sean: "Every time they sent coins to exchanges before, it was for selling"

Kip: "Same pattern many times. In November alone, BlackRock sold nearly seven hundred sixty million dollars worth of tokens on exchanges"

[第8段]

开始时间: 13:14:50

结束时间: 13:40:20

对话:

Tricia: "Damn. BlackRock is basically the ultimate bear"

Sean: "The last two transfers happened when the crypto market had poor liquidity, which intensified the drop"

Michael: "Come on. We just started recovering and they are going to ruin it again?"

Bruce: "One hundred thirty five million is small. It can cause short term noise but cannot reverse the entire market"

Mark: "BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink publicly admitted recently that he was wrong about Bitcoin and said the company is actively embracing it"

Mark: "Then why are they still selling Bitcoin?"

Axel: "These big transfers are likely routine ETF settlement processes"

Michael: @86@"So it is not BlackRock voluntarily selling their own holdings?"

Axel: "Correct. BlackRock's on chain transfers are actually part of the standard operations of spot ETF redemption"

Michael: "Oh, so it just means the ETF saw net outflows?"

Axel: "Exactly. Market makers submit redemption requests to BlackRock and exchange ETF shares for actual Bitcoin or Ethereum"

Mark: "Looks like we misunderstood BlackRock. We thought they were intentionally reducing holdings"

Axel: "The key point is that real market selling does not happen when you see the on chain transfer"

John: "What do you mean?"

Axel: "Because redemptions typically have a one day delay"

Axel: "This means when retail investors see a large on chain transfer, the related sell pressure may have already been absorbed by the market the previous day" {Tricia: 👍}

Tricia: "BlackRock's transfer happened on the third, but the market did not drop. So that explains it"

Axel: "Exactly. The market already absorbed the selling pressure"

Tricia: "I finally understand how the ETF redemption mechanism works. Enlightening"

Chriss: "So we do not need to worry about an Ethereum crash triggered by this?"

Axel: "Correct. These transfers are actually a very lagging indicator"