主题:12月17号高级小组实时新闻

作者:1

[第1段]

开始时间: 11:45:04

结束时间: 11:46:20

对话:

Jason: "Thanks for sharing, Assistant!"

[第2段]

开始时间: 11:50:04

结束时间: 11:58:20

对话:

Adel: "Thank you, Assistant."

Michael: "The market is still as terrible as usual."

Dale: "Was there anything noteworthy from this meeting?"

Jinglu: "Probably only Paul Atkins' advocacy for classification based regulation and encouragement of innovation."

Ken: "Not interesting. This roundtable focused entirely on crypto financial surveillance and privacy issues."

Jeff: "The attention is far lower than in previous roundtable meetings."

[第3段]

开始时间: 12:05:04

结束时间: 12:13:20

对话:

Ken: "Much lower."

Raj: @6@"Do not think of it that way. Protecting the lawful financial privacy of crypto users is a key prerequisite for the future development of this industry."{Jeff:👍}

Jinglu: "At least the innovation exemption is now officially set and will take effect in January next year."{Adel:👏}

Ken: "That is not bad. It counts as real progress."

Jason: "Not needing to immediately complete the entire expensive and time consuming traditional securities registration process will help stimulate the creation of new crypto startups."{Michael:👍}

Dale: "Looks like the SEC is willing to tolerate higher uncertainty and risk early on in exchange for faster innovation and flexibility."

Adel: "To attract global crypto talent and capital back into the United States."

[第4段]

开始时间: 12:15:20

结束时间: 12:21:20

对话:

Austin: "What I care about is whether this meeting excluded payment stablecoins from the definition of securities."

Raj: "It did. They will have an independent banking style regulatory framework."

Raj: "The SEC is building a new token classification system, dividing tokens into commodity type, utility type, collectible type, and security type."

Austin: "Finally out of the securities regulation framework. Achieving that alone makes this roundtable worthwhile."

Jeff: "The SEC's balance sheet expansion did not push the market up. Unexpected."

Michael: "It went up briefly, but it was pushed right back down."

Dale: "This has been the entire pattern recently. Quick spikes followed by slow drops. We need to adapt to the rhythm."

Axel: "They said the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve balance sheets are essentially heading toward a real merger."

Jason: "Seriously? That is a shocking statement."

Sean: "Does that imply excessive intervention?"

[第5段]

开始时间: 12:21:55

结束时间: 12:23:20

对话:

Axel: "Yes. Now the Fed's decision to shrink or expand the balance sheet depends entirely on Treasury conditions."

Jinglu: "That is not surprising. The Fed has always served the Treasury in this matter."

Adel: @25@"Bettson is becoming more and more like a shadow Fed Chair, something the entire market has criticized for a long time."

[第6段]

开始时间: 12:25:20

结束时间: 12:46:20

对话:

Tricia: "They placed too many of their trusted staff into senior positions at the Federal Reserve."

Axel: "Experts speculate that a direct reporting line to the White House may be established in the future."

Jeff: "There are already signs. The Federal Reserve is essentially providing financing support for the Treasury's spending plans."

Michael: "You mean the forty billion dollar purchasing plan?"

Raj: "Yes. I believe the core purpose is to ensure that government financing is not hindered by interest rate volatility."

Michael: "That sounds a bit exaggerated."

Axel: "Think about it. Once Trump's former economic adviser Kevin Hassett and other potential candidates enter the Fed, Bettson becomes their real boss."

Sean: "There are too many interlinked relationships between the Fed and government leadership. It will absolutely become a major risk."

Jinglu: "Every president does this, but Trump inserted far more of his own staff."

Axel: "In a more extreme scenario, all routine policy coordination could be conducted directly through Bettson."

Tricia: "Bettson previously suggested publicly creating a shadow Chair position to counterbalance Powell."

Tricia: "Now he is about to become the shadow Chair himself."

Ken: "Inside the Fed, there are quite a few voices opposing the merging of balance sheets."

Sean: "What potential issues could arise from expanding the balance sheet at this stage?"

Jason: "Inflation risks. With fiscal policy stimulus combined with monetary policy support, inflation could worsen."

Dale: "Higher inflation in 2026 looks unavoidable at this point."

Adel: @41@"History provides lessons. In the 1970s, then Fed Chair Arthur Burns sharply cut rates under pressure from the Nixon administration and is considered one of the main reasons behind the Great Inflation."{Michael:👍,Ken:👍}

Sean: "If history repeats itself, that would be awful."

Jeff: "Guys, I am seeing news that the next Fed Chair might be Kevin Warsh instead of Hassett."

Dale: "Really? Hassett had the support of both Trump and Bettson."

Raj: "It is true. Trump specifically praised Warsh in an interview yesterday."

Tricia: "Do not tell me Warsh will really become the next Fed Chair."

Jeff: "Hassett must be devastated. Leading the race for months, only to be overtaken at the last moment."

Axel: "Very strange. Hassett is a professional economist in the crypto field, while Warsh is just a lawyer by training."

[第7段]

开始时间: 12:49:20

结束时间: 13:14:20

对话:

Jason: "Maybe Hassett disagreed with Trump on certain issues."

Jason: "Otherwise I cannot think of a reason not to pick his own adviser Hassett."

Michael: "So Warsh has already overtaken Hassett?"

Raj: "Yes. Polymarket prediction markets show Warsh has a higher probability of becoming the next Fed Chair."

Ken: "Warsh served as a Fed Governor before. His resume is stronger than Hassett's."{Axel:👍}

Jinglu: "I think Trump values his extensive experience connecting the public and private sectors."

Jeff: "Are Warsh's policy views different from Hassett's?"

Ken: "Both support rate cuts, but Warsh prefers cutting rates while shrinking the balance sheet."

Dale: "Haha. We were just talking about this. With Warsh in office, the inflation danger might disappear."

Jason: "But cutting rates while shrinking the balance sheet is extremely rare."

Adel: "To do both at the same time, regulatory reform must reduce bank reserve requirements. Feasibility seems low in the short term."

Sean: "I still support Hassett. He is a PhD economist with proper academic training."

Ken: "If you follow Warsh, you would know he has long criticized the Fed for aggressively using its balance sheet over the past fifteen years."

Raj: "And during his time as a Fed Governor, he was known for aggressive policy stances."

Dale: "That actually fits Trump's style."

Jason: "Ending QE will make financial markets worse. It drains precious liquidity."

Adel: "This is why the continuation of QE has become the second major area of internal disagreement within the Fed."

Michael: "Everything the Fed does always turns into a mess."

Tricia: "I originally thought Trump strongly supported expanding the balance sheet. Apparently not. This really surprised me."

Axel: "I checked. Warsh previously stated he did not support the Fed's fifty basis point rate cut last September. He leans more hawkish."

Jeff: "That makes it even more confusing. Why would Trump choose him?"

Jinglu: @70@"It shows Trump cares about financial stability risks and does not want to unleash liquidity recklessly."

Michael: "Given Trump is demanding major rate cuts, Warsh must have made some commitments to him privately."

Dale: @71@"But Warsh's recent comments suggest he may support lowering policy rates."

Axel: "That is likely a strategic move. Everyone knows you must support rate cuts to be considered for the position."

Adel: "Let us wait for the final decision. Speculation at this point has no meaning."

Ken: "It will be announced within a week. The market response will tell us everything."

Raj: "There is one thing that might explain this."

Raj: "Warsh believes the Fed relies too heavily on data and lacks forward looking judgment. He also criticizes the Fed's routine use of forward guidance."{Tricia:👍}

Jason: "That could indeed be the reason Trump favors him."

[第8段]

开始时间: 13:14:50

结束时间: 13:41:20

对话:

Sean: "Right now economic data is missing and inaccurate."

Jinglu: "Like the US September non farm payroll report. Now that it is released, it has very little reference value."

Tricia: "Is November CPI being released tomorrow?"

Adel: "Yes. And it carries significant risk. Prepare for volatility."

Tricia: "What do you mean?"

Adel: "Because data has been missing for a long time, the actual reading could surprise to the upside. Some Wall Street forecasts even predict three point one percent."

Tricia: "Data this distorted should not even be released. It only disrupts the market's normal functioning."

Dale: "The butterfly effect of the US government shutdown has been awful."

Axel: "And this weekend we also have the nearly guaranteed historic rate hike from the Bank of Japan."

Jason: "Oh no. I almost forgot about that."

Tricia: "This week seems to be a of negative macro events."

Sean: "The last Bitcoin bull market ended when the Bank of Japan began raising rates. The probability of further declines is increasing."

Michael: "Is there a chance Japan delivers a dovish rate hike, turning it into a bad news fully priced in situation?"

Sean: "Very unlikely. Strong CPI plus a scheduled BOJ rate hike is the most probable scenario."

Ken: "That is the most dangerous combination."

Axel: "Yes. Stubborn US inflation and Japan's liquidity tightening create a global liquidity drain effect."

Jinglu: "Stay defensive. The real market bottom will only appear after global liquidity tightening is fully priced in."