主题:5月7号高级小组实时新闻

作者:1

[第1段]

开始时间: 12:45:04

结束时间: 12:46:20

对话:

Tricia: "The biggest bullish news is that a peace agreement is ready to be signed at any moment"

Raj: "Safe haven sentiment disappeared instantly. It has been a long time since I saw global tech stocks erupt into such a frenzy"{Raj:👏}

[第2段]

开始时间: 12:50:04

结束时间: 12:58:20

对话:

Kip: "Who still remembers the last time the crypto fear index escaped the extreme fear zone?"

Jason: "We survived it. Those who held on received the rewards they deserved"

Tricia: @3@"The rebound during the days after the 10.10 crash. That is the one I remember"

Kip: "Probably. After that, we fell into a seven month bear market"

Michael: "But there has been way too much news flow in Q2, making the market feel... how should I put it... fragmented"

Raj: "You mean Bitcoin? It is related to the 80000 level. That is the battlefield between bulls and bears"

Tricia: "What surprised me is that the ADP data caused absolutely no market decline at all"

[第3段]

开始时间: 13:05:04

结束时间: 13:13:20

对话:

Raj: "The US April ADP employment report showing 109000 new jobs looked relatively restrained"

Chriss: "That is only in comparison to the extreme volatility in mining company earnings reports. The data itself was actually weak"

Raj: "Already not bad. The labor market is warming up, but still far from overheating"{Chriss:👍}

Tricia: @11@"What was Wall Street's original expectation for ADP?"

Bruce: "Rate expectations are now fixed in a slightly dovish neutral stance. I think this is the best short term outcome"{Michael:👍}

Chriss: "104000 to 120000. Near the lower end of forecasts"

John: @14@"Agreed. The hawkish narrative of further hikes has been completely crushed"

Kip: "So does that mean there are still expectations for rate cuts in Q4 this year?"

Raj: "Not really. The data is not strong enough for markets to confidently price in continuous cuts this year"

[第4段]

开始时间: 13:15:20

结束时间: 13:21:20

对话:

Tricia: "The economy is stuck in limbo now. Neither too hot nor too cold"

Jason: @17@"The pressure now comes from rising real Treasury yields. Only if that is contained can there be hope for cuts"{Kip:👍}

Michael: "I want to understand. Under the current macro situation, is this good or bad for long term high beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum?"

John: "My understanding may be biased, but liquidity still remains constrained"

Mikaelian: "Stable but slightly negative, probably"

Raj: @21@"The combination of moderate employment growth and limited wage pressure suppresses high beta assets. No doubt about it"

Jason: "Guys, we need to view things from a relative perspective"

Kip: "It is like setting a cap on the most sensitive discount rate parameter in valuation models..."

Jason: "Compared to last Q4, the macro pressure suppressing prices below crypto valuations has eased"

[第5段]

开始时间: 13:21:55

结束时间: 13:23:20

对话:

John: "Same feeling. As long as real rates are no longer forced higher, I am already satisfied"

Michael: "The crypto market's demand for liquidity is still too strong. A double edged sword"

Mikaelian: "If you want to enjoy high premiums, you must also bear the risks when liquidity dries up"{Gregory:👍}

Chriss: "The upcoming nonfarm payroll data is extremely important. Watch it closely"

[第6段]

开始时间: 13:25:20

结束时间: 13:46:20

对话:

Tricia: "Is ADP considered a leading indicator for nonfarm payrolls?"

Jason: "Exactly. It has huge reference value and serves as a key anchor for the direction of future Fed meetings"

Bruce: @31@"There is not much suspense around nonfarm payrolls. It will basically confirm a moderate but not overheated employment scenario"

Chriss: "More or less. Dollar index and real rate movements reflect Wall Street's overall expectations"

Gregory: @34@"I am actually quite optimistic, especially regarding nonfarm payrolls. Because of oil prices"

John: "Geopolitical tail risks are gradually disappearing"

Bruce: "Improvement in nonfarm payrolls will have to wait until May. April statistics are still based on March oil prices"

Gregory: "Right right right, I forgot"

Raj: "So... the fatal issue is that even if crypto enters a recovery cycle, it is not because liquidity is recovering"

Chriss: "Exactly. Overall liquidity conditions will not change over the next one to two years"

Kip: @40@"Then what is driving it?"

Raj: "Enjoying the short term benefits brought by capped rates and a weakening dollar index"

Kip: "Damn. From your perspective, that means there will not be a major bull market anytime soon"

Michael: "Liquidity conditions simply do not support a massive bull market. Too hard to achieve"

Kip: "But Nasdaq is already in a bull market! Semiconductors have entered a crazy rally phase"

Raj: "The blood draining effect. Nasdaq's frenzy is actually bearish for crypto"

John: "They are absorbing liquidity. This is still a finite liquidity market"

Mikaelian: "Now rumors are spreading again that the SEC may restart regulation on crypto liquid staking"

[第7段]

开始时间: 13:49:20

结束时间: 14:14:20

对话:

Tricia: "Could it be Caroline again? She has always been obsessed with the mechanism behind staking"

Chriss: @49@"It is fine, relax. A single commissioner's opinion cannot control the SEC and CFTC"

Mikaelian: "Regulating liquid staking would damage the interests of many institutional setups"

Jason: "Exactly. Under a framework of cooperation and mutual benefit, who would still obsess over such details?"

Mark: "Guys, what is being discussed here is liquid staking, not the Ethereum staking we are familiar with"

Gregory: "Wait, they are actually different? Interesting"

John: "I remember Ethereum on chain staking counts as fixed staking"

Mark: "Completely different concepts. In fact... Ethereum's liquid staking ratio is very small, so even regulation would not have too much impact"{Bruce:👍}

Michael: "Oh, I see. First time hearing that staking has different categories"

John: @57@"Then... is Ethereum's weakness caused by this rumor?"

Mark: "Maybe. It affects sentiment to some extent, especially among speculators"

Bruce: "Babylon has already launched a compliant BTC staking protocol. There is no way staking itself can be restricted"

Chriss: "Ethereum is behaving exactly like previous cycles. Missing the first breakout wave, but standing out strongly during the catch up phase"

Raj: "Yeah. Let us focus on BTC first. We can still chase Ethereum later when it starts moving"

Tricia: @61@"You mean that massive 5 billion dollar staking protocol project? How is it progressing?"

Bruce: "Moving fast~ dedicated smart contracts have already been written"

Kip: "God, development is happening this quickly? I once thought this could only happen after 2030"

Jason: "You underestimate how fast the crypto ecosystem evolves~ just look at how much Ethereum accomplished in five years!"{Raj:👏}

John: @65@"This Babylon thing... is it the legendary BTC DeFi?"

Gregory: "Five years... maybe enough time for Bitcoin to replace the dollar 🤭🤭🤭🤭"

Bruce: "Exactly. It allows Bitcoin to serve as collateral in DeFi applications"

Kip: "BTC DeFi?? Wowwww!"

[第8段]

开始时间: 14:14:50

结束时间: 14:35:20

对话:

Tricia: "Can this really be achieved technically? Hard to believe, hahaha"

Bruce: "It uses DeFi technology to allow BTC holders to prove network operations and earn yield"{Mikaelian:👍}

John: "This basically fills Bitcoin's massive gap in application layer functionality"

Chriss: "I have been extremely bullish on this direction since last year. Bitcoin staking is a huge positive for crypto markets"

Bruce: "Of course. Ethereum's bullish logic is built on staking. I cannot even imagine what happens once Bitcoin gains it too"

Mikaelian: "That would be absolute madness!"

Raj: "The recent SEC regulatory discussion is related to Manta Network. Their reckless operations attracted SEC attention"

Gregory: "You mean Manta stopping inflationary staking and backing away from the red line?"

Raj: "Exactly. Under heavy public pressure, Manta ultimately chose to terminate its inflationary staking rewards program"

Jason: "Inflationary high yield staking is currently the easiest area in crypto to cross regulatory lines"

Gregory: "I remember the SEC once tried to place high yield staking projects under securities issuance or unregistered investment product review frameworks"

Mikaelian: "It resembles a collective investment scheme. Very unhealthy"

Kip: "Some altcoins turned token staking into a complete mess. They really should clean them up"

Michael: "Honestly, most of these ultra high staking yield projects eventually collapse"

Jason: "Exactly. Especially those meaningless meme coins. Have there not been enough bloody lessons already?"

[第9段]

开始时间: 14:32:50

结束时间: 14:48:20

对话:

Chriss: "The industry needs to follow Ethereum's example. Token staking should return more toward network usage and governance rights"

Mark: @84@"If you pay close attention to this area, you will notice regulators have been constantly suppressing high yield narratives since the beginning of this year"

Mark: "Think carefully about the deeper reasons and logic behind it"

Michael: "Making the market more compliant and easier to regulate"

Gregory: "Is it... preparation for future crypto regulatory framework bills?"

Mark: "Bingo. I believe that is exactly the purpose behind the crackdown on crypto violations"

Mikaelian: "Following that logic, several major related bills will be completed before midterm elections begin"

Chriss: "That would be perfect. It would align nicely with the new crypto business review framework and stablecoin legislation"

Tricia: "Makes sense. Only then can assets like Manta be treated as functional tokens instead of yield products"{Chriss:👍}

Gregory: "It seems regulation is actually bullish for the long term development of crypto markets"

Jason: "Of course. The entire industry ecosystem is rapidly moving toward compliance and standardization"

Raj: "The legal characteristics of yield generating token products make them too easy to classify as securities, which clearly goes against the government's intentions"

Michael: "A late realization. This is a new round of compliance restructuring"

Kip: "As long as it does not affect Ethereum related staking ecosystems 🙏"

Mark: "It will not. The focus is only on high yield token and staking products"